RBI Meeting outcome @ 11:45 AM – A lot depends on it.

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Market Highlights & Commentary:

  • Rupee opens weaker at 71.73 as against yesterday’s close of 71.55 and may trade the day mixed between 71.30-71.80 and small chance of 72.00. 
  • Today RBI meeting (11:45 AM) and possible outcomes on interest rates with Rupee impact is below. Our view is of 25 bp rate cut.
  • Status quo and dovish stance- Bonds and Equity to rally and rupee may also gain to levels closer to 71.302.
  • Rate cut- Equity may rally but rupee may weaken as bond investor may not get upside. CRR easing and status quo- equities and NBFC to rally. Small gains in rupee In coming week, two imp events:
    1. Feb 11 – NCLAT decision on Essar
    2. US treasury officials visiting China for trade talks 
  • In overseas market no major development took place. USD traded moderately stronger against other major rival currencies including EUR and GBP.
  • While EUR fell on back of poor manufacturing data, GBP continued to trade under pressure due to Brexit concern.
  • U.S trade deficit for Jan-19 narrowed drown to USD 49 Bn from previous USD 55 Bn in Dec-18.
  • Oil price remained around 62.50 falling marginally owing to
  • This morning most of the asian equities mixed while currencies are flat.